Thriving economy, urbanization spike draw migrants seeking opportunities

At least eight provincial-level regions in China reported growth in their resident populations last year amid rapid urbanization, according to data released by local authorities and experts.

The regions that reported population growth are the Xinjiang Uygur and Xizang autonomous regions, and Shaanxi province in western China; Zhejiang, Anhui and Fujian provinces in the east; and Guangdong and Hainan provinces in the south, according to statistics from regional authorities.

Meanwhile, the populations of Jiangsu province and Tianjin remained stable from the previous year, while 19 provincial-level regions reported a decline. Heilongjiang province and the Ningxia Hui autonomous region have yet to release their demographic data for last year.

China's total population declined for the third consecutive year in 2024, falling by 1.39 million to 1.408 billion, largely due to lower birth rates and a shrinking number of women of childbearing age.

Population changes at the regional level are shaped by natural shifts — defined as the difference between births and deaths — as well as internal migration.

Wang Jinying, a professor at Hebei University's School of Economics and a demography expert, said provinces that saw population increases last year follow three distinct growth models.

"Thanks to their thriving economies and ample job opportunities, provinces such as Zhejiang and Guangdong witnessed significant influxes of migrants from other regions, leading to an increase in their resident populations," he said.

Official data show Guangdong's population grew by 740,000 to reach 127.8 million, while Zhejiang's increased by 430,000 to 66.7 million.

Xinjiang also followed this pattern, Wang said. The frontier region bordering Central Asia has become a key hub of the Belt and Road Initiative in recent years, drawing residents with increased economic and trade opportunities.

In addition, provinces such as Anhui, Shaanxi and Fujian — once beset by a high number of out-migrants due to underdeveloped economies — have seen accelerated economic growth in recent years, Wang said.

"This has not only curbed outward migration but also spurred a return of residents, boosting their resident population figures," he said.

However, the population growth in these regions remains relatively modest. Shaanxi and Anhui each recorded a year-on-year increase of fewer than 20,000 people, while Fujian's population rose by 100,000.

The third growth model is exemplified by Xizang, Yunnan and Hainan, where population increases are largely due to natural growth, with birth rates exceeding death rates, Wang said.

Among the regions experiencing population decline last year are Jilin and Liaoning provinces in Northeast China. The region has seen the steepest declines in recent years due to large-scale emigration and low fertility rates.

Still, both provinces recorded a modest rebound in the number of newborns, with each reporting about 9,000 more births year-on-year.

Nationwide, China also saw a slight uptick in the number of newborns last year, rising by 520,000 to reach 9.54 million.

"The increase in these regions, as well as the national figure, can be attributed to a sizable number of people who had postponed marriage and childbearing deciding to tie the knot and have babies," Wang said. "Other contributing factors include the end of the COVID-19 pandemic and the auspicious Year of the Dragon in 2024. But the overall scale of the increase remains modest."

Experts said China's urban population has been steadily growing and is expected to continue expanding as more people move to cities. However, Northeast China's population is likely to keep shrinking.

A recent study by Liu Houlian, a researcher at the China Population and Development Research Center, projected that China's urbanization rate will reach 75.4 percent by 2035, up from 67 percent in 2024.

The study noted a significant population increase in cities along the Yangtze River and coastal areas, as well as in provincial capitals. Meanwhile, the trend of population decline has spread from northeastern provinces to some central and western regions.

"Driven by high-quality economic development, scientific innovation and improved public services, it is expected that the populations of economically vibrant cities in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regions will continue to grow," the study said. "Conversely, less developed small and medium-sized cities are likely to face continued population shrinkage."

Wang said China's total population will likely continue to decline, intensifying competition among regions for labor and widening the divergence in regional development.

To address the trend, he suggested promoting high-quality, balanced regional development, with a focus on cultivating more central cities and urban clusters.

"Hefei in Anhui province serves as a prime illustration of how an emerging economic hub can draw in population. An increasing number of people, previously concentrated in urban giants such as Shanghai, have opted to settle down in the city instead," he said.

Wang added that expanding public services, such as fertility support policies, healthcare and education, is essential to accommodate the influx of people into urban areas.